There have been nine consecutive ECB rate rises since July 2022. In the poll 37 - or 53% - of 70 economists predict no move at the Sept 14 meeting compared with 47% in last month's poll, which would mean the ECB leaving its deposit rate at 3.75%, in line with market pricing. The poll also showed 53% expecting a deposit rate rise to 4.00% sometime this year, with 33 economists saying September, and four October or December. While markets are priced for a roughly 60% chance of a pause in September, they are split for year-end, with just over a 50% probability of a 4.00 deposit rate by then. However, inflation setbacks could still force a rate hike later this year," said Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank.

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Persons: Christine Lagarde, bloc's, Lagarde, Bas van Geffen, Michael Kirker, Prerana Bhat, Anitta Sunil, Maneesh Kumar, Sarupya Ganguly, John Stonestreet Organizations: European Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Rabobank, spillovers, Deutsche Bank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Germany, Ukraine, European